With the trend in Chinese tourism continuing to evolve, as a result of China’s shrinking export-driven economy and affluent middle-class choosing quality over quantity, Thailand is strategically repositioning itself around sustainable travel and premium experiences. The trend toward digital-first, independent travelers and visitor declines in traditional group markets are expected to be a permanent feature even as the number of Chinese visitors gradually recovers. And Thai tourism organizations are adapting by catering to the burgeoning demand for high-end, environmentally conscious travel — as Chinese tourists become more sophisticated about sustainability-handling destinations.

China is morphing into a new breed of economy, and although much of its changes have already happened within its own market, the results are also being felt across global economies, especially in tourism-hungry nations like Thailand. While optimistic official figures mask the overall situation, a closer look at the headlines shows a complex reality behind the much-hyped China story now entering this new phase of transition for the world’s second largest economy. China is facing internal struggles, including empty shopping malls, high graduate unemployment, and a vulnerable property market, which could significantly impact the future of its extensive outbound tourism industry. In this article, we will delve into these shifts and provide detailed research on how they will affect the overall outlook for Chinese tourism to Thailand in the short-term 2022–2024 as well as mid to long-term during 2025–2028.

China’s Economic Transformation: A Complex Reality

For years, China’s robust economic growth has been a driving force in global markets, including the tourism sector. The Chinese outbound tourism market has long been one of the most lucrative for countries like Thailand, where Chinese visitors have contributed significantly to the local economy. In contrast, the situation on the ground presents a much more complex picture.Despite these challenges, China’s economy is not in freefall. While official GDP figures may reflect a 5.2% growth, which is still above many developed nations, underlying factors suggest a more complicated economic environment.

• Weak Consumer Confidence: Many Chinese consumers are still recovering from financial stress, especially following the real estate downturn and high levels of household debt. This cautious consumer sentiment is reflected in outbound travel trends, as many Chinese families remain hesitant to spend on luxury vacations.
• Youth Unemployment: Another concerning issue is the high level of unemployment among Chinese youth, which affects their disposable income and ability to travel abroad. This demographic, which has traditionally been a significant part of outbound tourism, is likely to spend less on travel in the coming years.
• Property Market Struggles: China’s property sector is facing a significant slowdown, with property values falling and many middle-class households holding off on non-essential purchases, including international travel.

Although facing significant challenges, China’s economy is not collapsing. The 5.2% growth places China in the upper-middle range of global economies, but it is a far cry from the rapid expansion witnessed in previous decades. This economic shift has profound implications for China’s outbound tourism, and by extension, for countries like Thailand, which rely heavily on Chinese visitors.

Short-Term Outlook (2025–2026): A Slower Comeback Than Expected

For Thailand, China has long been its largest inbound tourism market, and any shifts in Chinese outbound travel patterns will have significant consequences. The short-term outlook for Chinese tourism to Thailand (2025–2026) is far less optimistic than hoped, despite the country’s positive GDP growth.

• Lower Chinese Arrivals: Thailand is expected to welcome between 6.5 and 7 million Chinese tourists in 2025, which is a significant drop from the pre-pandemic peak of 11 million visitors in 2019. This reflects the ongoing challenges in the Chinese economy, particularly the continued consumer caution and slow recovery from the pandemic’s impact on travel.
• Budget-Conscious Travelers: Even though China has eased its travel restrictions and resumed outbound group tours, many Chinese travelers are now more budget-conscious. Average spending per trip remains below pre-COVID levels, as many Chinese tourists are focused on value for money rather than luxury travel. This shift has implications for destinations like Thailand, where mass tourism had previously been the norm.
• Changing Traveler Profiles: While family vacations and group tours remain popular, the demand for large-scale group travel will be muted unless airline capacity increases and consumer confidence fully returns. Thailand’s tourism industry will need to adjust to a more selective Chinese traveler, focusing on affordability and value.

In light of these factors, Thailand may need to look beyond its traditional reliance on mass-market tourism and focus on attracting higher-value visitors who are more discerning and selective in their travel choices.

Mid-Term Tourism Forecast for 2026-2027: Steady Recovery with Room for Growth

Looking ahead to the mid-term (2026–2027), the situation may start to improve for Thailand’s tourism sector, but the recovery will be gradual. If consumer sentiment in China strengthens, Thailand can expect a slow but steady rebound in Chinese arrivals, driven by returning leisure travelers and independent tourists.

• Steady Growth in Chinese Visitors: In this period, Thailand may experience annual growth in Chinese arrivals of 10–15%, primarily driven by returning leisure travelers, families, and millennials who prefer to travel independently. These tech-savvy travelers, known as FITs (Free Independent Travelers), will seek personalized travel experiences, which could play a crucial role in Thailand’s recovery strategy.
• In early 2024, Thailand’s implementation of a visa-free entry policy will remain a key factor in attracting Chinese visitors to the country. This policy, along with affordable, family-friendly destinations such as Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, and Hua Hin, will help maintain Thailand’s appeal among Chinese travelers. The growing demand for destinations that are easy to access and offer great value for money will continue to drive tourism from China.
• Muted Group Travel: While group travel is likely to increase, it is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels unless airline capacity rebounds significantly. The shift towards independent travel will require Thailand’s tourism operators to adapt their offerings to suit the preferences of more discerning travelers.

Long-Term Outlook (2027–2028): Stabilization and Selective Growth

The long-term outlook for Chinese tourism to Thailand (2027–2028) is more optimistic, assuming there are no significant shocks to China’s economy. By 2028, Thailand may welcome back 10 to 11 million Chinese tourists annually, regaining the visitor numbers seen before the pandemic.

• Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels: Thailand can expect a full recovery in terms of Chinese visitor numbers, with annual arrivals returning to 10–11 million by 2028. This would bring Thailand’s tourism market back to the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic, though the profile of the Chinese traveler may have changed.
• Evolving Traveler Demographics: The composition of Chinese tourists will evolve over the coming years. There will likely be fewer low-budget package tourists and more independent, digital-first travelers who seek customized and exclusive experiences. As China’s middle class recovers, more affluent travelers may emerge, seeking high-end, immersive, or wellness-focused vacations.
• Increased Demand for Curated Experiences: Thai destinations that invest in offering sustainable, curated, and “Instagrammable” experiences will be well-positioned to attract the evolving Chinese tourist. The rise of digital-first travelers, who value unique experiences that can be shared on social media, will drive demand for activities that go beyond traditional sightseeing.
• Higher Spending Potential: While the average spend per head may not return to pre-2019 levels, there will be a notable increase in the demand for premium travel experiences. Luxury and wellness tourism operators, as well as destinations offering eco-friendly and immersive experiences, are likely to see higher spending from Chinese tourists.
• Tech Integration and Language Services: In an increasingly digital world, destinations that offer Chinese-language services, mobile payment compatibility (such as WeChat Pay and Alipay), and personalized content will have a competitive edge. Thailand’s success in meeting the technological demands of Chinese travelers will play a crucial role in its ability to attract and retain visitors in the future.

The reduction of one Chinese tourist leaves around US$2 billion on the table during their stay so the economic transformation in China is likely to have huge repercussions for Thai tourism, at least over the short term. Chinese tourists are expected to grow at their slowest pace in years in the years ahead, but early signs of recovery are apparent as consumer sentiment picks up. About 2027–2028, Chinese arrivals will also be back to the pre-pandemic level in Thailand but the profile of traveler has been changing.

With economic uncertainty impacting outbound travel from China, Thailand is reshaping its tourism product to appeal to changed Chinese travel trends with an emphasis on sustainable and premium tourism. Thailand intends to capitalize on changing preferences and higher spending power by attracting the world’s more sophisticated visitor demographic, independent, digital-first travelers, through eco-friendly and well-rounded travel experiences.

Whereas destinations that curate and deliver unique, sustainable experiences irrespective of star ratings will continue to grow along with the providers oriented toward digitally connected independent travelers. How flexible it can be to get into these changes, especially in regards of integrating technology and personalizing services is key for how fast the country will recover from Covid-19 as well as how they can take advantage of this new Chinese market soon.