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Outlook for rail freight rife with turbulent undercurrents

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A new report says the uncertain economic climate continues to weigh on intermodal and carload traffic in different ways.

The latest analysis by the Association of American Railroads finds that the U.S. economy is caught between signs of strength and pervasive uncertainty, influenced by a range of variables including consumer spending patterns, global supply chain challenges, and fluctuating interest rates.

Intermodal traffic experienced a notable decline, with a 2.9% drop in originations in June 2025 compared to the same month in the previous year. This decrease is attributed to ongoing global supply chain disruptions and reduced international shipments, as worldwide trade tensions and logistic bottlenecks persisted. Despite this setback, the second quarter of 2025 showed a 2% increase in intermodal traffic year-over-year, indicating a potential resilience amidst prevailing challenges.

Conversely, carload traffic — excluding intermodal — saw a 2.1% increase in June 2025 on a year-over-year basis. This marked the fourth consecutive month of gains, underscoring a steady, albeit fluctuating, demand within the industrial economy. The second quarter of 2025 particularly stood out with a 4.8% rise in carloads compared to Q2 2024, representing the largest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2021.

Coal staged a modest recovery, with a 2.4% increase in carloads in June 2025, marking four consecutive year-over-year gains. This uptick reflects improved performance compared to previous periods of decline, as the coal industry adjusts and rebounds from historical lows.

The chemicals sector, however, faced slight contraction, with a 0.6% decrease in carloads from June 2024 to June 2025. This decline is noteworthy as it breaks a streak of consistent growth over the past 22 months. Nonetheless, year-to-date figures reveal a 1.6% increase in chemical carloads, driven by sustained manufacturing activity despite higher natural gas prices that could potentially hinder production.

Grain carloads presented a more optimistic picture, increasing by 11.3% in June 2025 compared to the previous year. This growth is attributed to a rise in U.S. exports, bolstered by substantial gains in corn despite declines in soybeans and sorghum. Such export-driven demand has significantly contributed to the sector’s performance, maintaining upward momentum.

Industrial products, which encompasses a broad range of goods including chemicals, autos, and steel, a marginal 0.4% growth was noted in June 2025. However, year-to-date carloads for this category showed a slight decline of 0.3%, reflecting the sporadic nature of industrial output over the past 18 months. These fluctuations point to a broader sluggishness that typifies the U.S. industrial economy during this period.

Various economic indicators further illustrate the environment within which the rail industry operates. The labor market, for instance, has shown mixed signals. Preliminary data indicate net job gains of 147,000 in June, contributing to consumer spending momentum. Yet, the unemployment rate’s slight decline to 4.1% and the fluctuating job openings suggest potential vulnerabilities. The consistent job growth has sustained consumer-driven freight demand, crucial for the rail industry, but signs of a cooling labor market warrant cautious optimism.

Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, presents another critical factor. May 2025 saw a preliminary 2.2% increase in total inflation-adjusted consumer spending year-over-year, marking the smallest gain in over a year. On a monthly basis, spending actually fell in May, hinting at a slowdown that, if prolonged, could damp rail volumes, particularly intermodal traffic.

The manufacturing sector continues to contract, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI remaining below 50%, indicating a lack of expansion. This ongoing contraction poses challenges for the rail freight industry, especially given the significant share of rail carloads linked to manufacturing outputs. Meanwhile, the services sector, a dominant component of the U.S. economy, is teetering on the brink of contraction, with its PMI hovering just above the 50% threshold. A downturn in services could further impact job growth and consumer demand, cascading into reduced intermodal flows.

Inflation remains relatively stable, with the price index for personal consumption expenditures up 2.3% year-over-year in May 2025. This aligns closely with the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target, but continuous monitoring is essential as the Fed assesses future interest rate adjustments. Inflation trends, coupled with other economic data, will play a crucial role in shaping fiscal policies that impact the rail industry.

Looking ahead, AAR said the second half of 2025 appears unlikely to provide definitive clarity, as freight volumes are expected to continue responding to a complex blend of supportive and restraining forces. 

Subscribe to FreightWaves’ Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your inbox.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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London-Berlin trains on the drawing board for UK-German rail taskforce | Rail industry

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Plans for possible direct trains from London to Berlin will be drawn up by a joint UK-German taskforce, reigniting hopes for better rail connections across Europe.

The partnership, announced as part of the bilateral treaty to be signed by the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, and his German counterpart, Friedrich Merz, could eventually lead to direct rail services between the two countries after previous plans for London-Frankfurt trains hit the buffers.

The Department for Transport described the agreement as a “significant step forward”, with direct trains the most eye-catching part of a commitment to collaborate in enhancing sustainable transport links and mobility.

Germany has also agreed to allow some arriving UK airline passengers to use passport e-gates at its airports by the end of August, the Cabinet Office said.

Since Brexit, UK travellers have needed to queue to have their passports manually stamped, rather than use automated gates, at EU airports.

A joint taskforce will bring together transport experts from Germany and the UK to tackle the issues that have blocked such services in the past, including commercial, safety and technical requirements, and, not least, border arrangements.

The transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, raised the possibility of visiting Checkpoint Charlie “direct from the comfort of a train”, adding that the government was “determined to put Britain at the heart of a better-connected continent”.

She said: “The Brandenburg Gate, the Berlin Wall and Checkpoint Charlie – in just a matter of years, rail passengers in the UK could be able to visit these iconic sights direct from the comfort of a train, thanks to a direct connection linking London and Berlin.

“This landmark agreement – part of a new treaty the prime minister will sign with Chancellor Merz today – has the potential to fundamentally change how millions of people travel between our two countries, offering a faster, more convenient and significantly greener alternative to flying.

“The economic potential is enormous. A direct rail link would support the creation of jobs and strengthen the vital trade links that underpin our economic relationship with Germany. British businesses will have better access to European markets, whilst German companies will find it easier to invest and operate in the UK.”

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The deal follows a similar memorandum of understanding signed with Switzerland in May to explore direct services.

While direct trains to new European countries may be at least a decade away, the international train operator Eurostar has spoken of its ambition to open new routes to Frankfurt and Geneva. Other potential rival operators, including Virgin, are hoping to start cross-Channel services.

Opening new routes has been difficult due to commercial viability, different track and train systems, and border requirements and station capacity. Eurostar’s longest direct route to date, London to Amsterdam, has had to overcome numerous difficulties, largely linked to border security and passport control, since its delayed inception in 2018.

The demand for direct London-Berlin trains is unclear. Passengers can travel between the UK and German capitals in about 10 hours, changing in Brussels and Cologne.



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Over-dependence bulk freight hamstrings railway revenues: Study – Industry News

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The Indian Railways‘ over-dependence on bulk commodities like coal, iron ore and cement is hurting its growth potential and exposing it to the competitive pressure from other modes of freight transportation, a PwC-FICCI report said.

Strategic Opportunities

The unreliable services coupled with inflexible routes and poor timeliness are affecting the railways’ potential to grab a bigger market share in the “high-value” non-bulk commodities space, it said.

Even though the rail transport, particularly over long distances, offers inherent cost efficiencies compared with road transport, its infrastructure, terminal operations, and rolling stocks are not designed to handle the fast-growing segments like e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, FMCG, consumer durables and automobiles.

“These commodities demand more flexible, time-sensitive, door-to-door logistics, which road transport is better equipped to provide, rendering rail less competitive for such segments,” the report noted.

In the past five years, a large part of the railways’ freight volume growth – 5.6% CAGR – is contributing by a narrow set of traditional bulk commodities. Currently, coal dominates the railways’ freight basket accounting for arounf 50% of the freight volumes, followed by cement and iron ore, contributing around 10% each. But the growth in these bulk commodities are slowing down due to the structural limitations within rail logistics. On the other hand, the growth in emerging non-bulk commodities stood at 10% over the same period.

“A network that is optimised for bulk train operations may struggle to accommodate growing demand for parcel/lightweight goods or automobile transport, leading to capacity mismatches and service shortfalls,” it adds.

However, the report said that targeted interventions can boost the movement of lightweight commodities and enable greater diversification of the rail freight portfolio. “In India, more than 90% of the non-bulk freight market is transported by road. By contrast, in developed countries such as the US, 66% of non-bulk freight is moved by road, with rail or rail-intermodal systems accounting for a substantial 30%. This modal imbalance presents a strategic opportunity for IR to expand its footprint in the non-bulk segment,” the report noted.

Challenges

Though the railways has made efforts in the recent years to promote non-bulk segment. For instance, Joint Parcel Product–Railways Cargo Service (JPPRCS) scheme was introduced in 2023 to provide end-to-end logistics solutions for parcel. Similarly, Parcel Cargo Express Train (PCET) was launched this year to boost the transport of commodities like rubber and pineapples. But the modal share of rail for parcel-based cargo and lightweight commodities still remains low. The report further said that railways needs to adopt a commodity-specific approach to terminal planning, asset deployment and service design to diversify its commodity portfolio.

“Another opportunity lies in the automobile sector, specifically two-wheelers and passenger vehicles, which fall under the low rail share category but exhibit strong growth forecasts. The railways has focused on this segment by modifying the AFTO scheme, introducing modern rolling stock (NMG and BCACBM coaches) and assisting the development of new automobile loading terminals. These efforts have increased the modal share of rail in automobile transport from 1.2% in FY14 to approximately 20% in FY24,” the report said.



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Rail News – U.S. freight-rail traffic climbs 2.6% in Week 28. For Railroad Career Professionals

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U.S. freight-rail traffic rose 2.6% to 496,188 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending July 12 compared with the traffic in the same week in 2024, according to Association of American Railroads data.

The railroads hauled 223,968 carloads during the week, a 4.1% increase, and 272,220 containers and trailers, a 1.4% increase.

Eight of the 10 carload commodities that AAR tracks every week logged an increase. The gainers included coal, up 4.8% to 58,370 carloads; chemicals, up 6.3% to 32,599; and motor vehicles and parts, up 10.4% to 12,992. The two commodity groups that posted decreases were forest products, down 1.8% to 8,253 carloads; and metallic ores and metals, down 0.7% to 20,229.

Meanwhile, Canadian railroads reported 88,255 carloads for the week, up 1.6%, and 74,638 intermodal units, up 9.3%. Mexican railroads reported 15,875 carloads, a 40.4% increase; and 10,661 intermodal units, a 12.6% increase.

For the first 28 weeks of 2025 compared to 2024:
• U.S. railroads reported 13,627,921 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.9%;
• Canadian railroads posted 4,556,986 carloads, containers and trailers, up 1.3%; and
• Mexican railroads logged 671,292 carloads and intermodal units, down 6.5%.



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