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Mixed signals for June on US rail freight ‣ WorldCargo News

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International intermodal traffic has taken an expected downturn, while domestic carloads have risen. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) has reported a fourth consecutive month of year-on-year carload growth in the USA. The industry’s representative body says that offers a glimpse of recovery in the industrial economy. However, this has been tempered by that decline in intermodal volumes, ending nearly two years of gains and reflecting growing uncertainty across freight and consumer markets.

In the AAR’s monthly review, June 2025 saw a 2.1% increase in total rail carloads over the same month last year, driven by gains in grain, coal and other industrial commodities. In contrast, intermodal traffic dropped 2.9%, with containerised volumes weighed down by volatile supply chains and softened demand. As the AAR put it: “Rail freight volumes have followed that lead, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and lingering hesitation across key sectors.”

A tale of two freight streams

Intermodal traffic in the USA is dominated by containerised international shipments. As might have been predicted, the slowdown in landings at US ports is reflected in the container numbers moved by rail. The overall figure fell by over 31,000 units in June, the first such year-on-year drop in 22 months. Weekly intermodal originations averaged 260,834 units, falling short of the long-term average for the month. “Looking ahead, intermodal performance will hinge on a range of factors,” said the ARR. “[These include] developments and policy impacting global supply chains and the strength of consumer-driven freight demand.”

June figures from the AAR as noted (AAR)

Conversely, on the conventional carload side, June volumes averaged 226,259 per week. That’s the best performance since 2021. Across the twenty carload commodity categories measured by ARR, ten saw growth, including grain, coal and chemicals. Total carloads were up 4.8% for Q2 and 2.4% year-to-date, making the first half of 2025 the most active period since the pandemic-era freight slump.

Coal, grain and chemicals show resilience

Despite a dependence on service industries, America is still a heavily industrialised economy. As such, domestic movements play a significant role in the rail freight industry. Reflecting that, coal made up the second-largest volume commodity and saw a 2.4% rise in June, its fourth straight monthly gain. However, as the AAR noted, this trend “reflects carload weakness last year more than higher volumes this year”. Year-to-date coal carloads were up 6.4%. That’s nearly 90,000 more than in 2024.

Grain saw the biggest year-on-year gain in June at 11.3%, following improved export demand, particularly for corn. That may be attributable to a reshaping of export markets, in light of decreased demand from China, a collateral effect of the Trump administration’s tariff regime. This did, however, mark the fourth straight monthly increase and the sixteenth rise in 17 months. Chemicals, though slipping 0.6% year-on-year, remain one of the highest-volume categories. Year-to-date totals were up 1.6%, reaching the highest ever for the first half of a year.

Industry is still advancing under caution signals

The manufacturing sector remains subdued. The American Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index, a monthly economic indicator, improved slightly to 49.0% in June, but that is still below the 50% threshold that indicates growth. The AAR’s industrial products category, a measure by the Association that gives a rating for industrial rail freight health, was up just 0.4% year-on-year, with overall volumes still down slightly over the first half of 2025.

Year-on-year performance 2024-25 (AAR)

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which strips out coal, grain and intermodal, dipped 0.5% from May to June, its lowest level in over a year. However, there was a 0.7% rise in seasonally adjusted carloads excluding coal and grain, suggesting isolated strength in parts of the industrial economy. The prospects for American railroads do seem to sway considerably, reflecting the volatile economic prospects overall.

Outlook remains uncertain for 2025 H2

Rail has been proving a barometer for the wider American economy. “In recent months, the US economy has defied easy characterisation,” said the AAR. “[It’s] caught between signals of underlying strength and uncertainty regarding the road ahead.” That uncertainty spans core economic indicators, from consumer spending to monetary policy, which is reflected in rail’s mixed performance.

The second half of 2025 will likely test both resilience and adaptability across the US freight market, according to the AAR conclusions. With intermodal faltering and carloads holding on, the rail sector stands at the confluence of global logistics, domestic industry, and economic confidence. Whether the railroads can react quickly to changing economic dynamics remains to be seen.

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Rail & Road

Hanoi speeds up metro and railway industry development

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Illustrative photo (H. Hieu)

The Hanoi Department of Construction announced it is accelerating steps to meet the goal of developing 15 urban railway lines, totaling about 600km, by 2045.

The city is currently rushing to complete procedures to begin construction on two urban railway lines in 2025, inclulding Line 2, Nam Thang Long – Tran Hung Dao section, 11.5km long, and Line 5, Van Cao – Hoa Lac section, 38.43km long.

This is part of Hanoi People’s Committee Resolution No188 to develop urban railways in three phases.

From 2024 to 2030, the city aims to complete about 96.8km, including Lines 2, 3, and 5, while preparing investments for 301km of Lines 1, extended 2A to Xuan Mai, Lines 4, 6, 7, 8, and those connecting satellite cities. The total estimated capital for this phase is about $14.6 billion.

From 2031 to 2035, Hanoi will complete an additional 301km of urban railways, with an estimated capital of about $22.57 billion. Once completed, urban railways will handle 35-40 percent of public passenger transport.

From 2036 to 2045, the city will complete the remaining 200.7km supplemented under the Capital Master Plan and revised General Plan. The estimated capital for this phase is $18.25 billion.

Developing the urban railway system will not only ease Hanoi’s urban traffic pressure but also promote sustainable, modern, and connected urban development. Once completed, the urban railway network will serve as the backbone of the public transport system, driving development in both the inner city and satellite urban areas.

Dang Huy Dong, Director of the Institute for Planning and Development Research, stated that completing the urban railway system in just under 12 years is a daunting task. 

It may not be feasible without integrating TOD (transit-oriented development) urban models along metro station routes. This requires exceptional management that goes beyond current investment and construction regulations.

According to Dong, without solutions for management mechanisms and funding, continued reliance on ODA loans will hinder Hanoi’s ability to complete its historic urban railway mission. To secure funding, TOD planning and auctions for real estate investment rights in these areas are essential.

Public transportation includes various types, but only urban railways can effectively address urban traffic issues in cities with populations of 5 million or more.

Hanoi will conduct a review of land ownership and usage along the corridors, project locations, and TOD planning areas of approved urban railway lines.

TOD area is developed around stations and stops of public transportation, focusing on creating living, working, and recreational spaces closely connected to these transport routes. The goal of TOD is to encourage the use of public transportation, reduce traffic congestion, and foster sustainable urban development.

VND17,509 billion railway complex

Hanoi People’s Committee has submitted a proposal to the Prime Minister regarding the location, scale, and boundaries of a railway industry complex project in southern Hanoi (in communes of Chuyen My and Ung Hoa, Hanoi, covering about 250 hectares).

Previously, Vietnam Railways Corporation proposed that competent authorities review and approve the investment policy for this project.

The proposed railway industry complex is a multifunctional facility, including a factory for manufacturing and assembling vehicles, equipment, and spare parts; a research center; a maintenance and repair center; infrastructure connections to the national railway; and supporting facilities.

The preliminary total investment for the railway industry complex is VND17,509 billion. Public investment will fund the railway line connecting to the national railway, technical infrastructure, an R&D center, and state-supported components. 

State capital injected into enterprises will fund the assembly plant and related components, while inviting investors to participate and collaborate in business operations.

If approved by authorities, the railway industry complex project will be prepared for investment within one year and constructed within three years to complete Phase 1 by 2029.

According to Vietnam Railways Corporation, the complex aims to produce domestically and gradually localize hardware and software components for information, signaling, and power supply systems; and master operations and maintenance. And it will produce certain spare parts for high-speed railways. It will also involve technology transfer, equipment investment, and production of locomotives and carriages for national railways with speeds below 200 km/h, as well as purchasing designs and manufacturing for urban railways.

The project will also establish a functional area for major repairs of all railway vehicles and equipment, initially focusing on national and urban railways.

N. Huyen 




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Trial finds ‘world-first’ system protects tracks from damage

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A world-first system of shock absorbers made from recycled tyres has been shown to be effective in protecting railway tracks from damage.  

The new technology was tested over a two-year period by a collaborative team from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Sydney Trains, Transport for NSW, and industry partners EcoFlex and Bridgestone.

Researchers installed track sections with a rubber underlay made from tyres alongside conventional track sections for a direct comparison, monitoring vibration, track settlement, and ballast degradation at a live Sydney Trains freight line in Chullora. 

The results showed that the sections with the rubber underlay showed “significantly less degradation and greater stability”.  

To make the shock absorbers, tyre cells are placed in a specific layout made from recycled tyres infilled with waste materials such as spent ballast and coal wash. 

Recycled rubber grids cast from worn out conveyor belts from mining sites are also placed directly beneath the ballast.  

The technology addresses a long-standing engineering challenge: the high cost of maintaining conventional tracks. 

UTS researcher Distinguished Professor Buddhima Indraratna, the original inventor of this technique, and Director of the UTS Transport Research Centre, said the rubber-based underlay effectively protects the ballast, preventing it from being pulverised and extending the life of the entire track structure. 

“Additionally, the underlay controls the way the train load is distributed to the deeper, softer and often wet soil beneath the track, preventing unacceptable soil settlement and weakening of the overlying track.  

“This translates directly to lower maintenance costs, fewer track closures for the public, and improved network reliability.” 

Dr Richard Kelly, Chief Technical Principal for Geotechnical Engineering at SMEC Australia and an advisor on this project, said: “If widely adopted by railway asset owners, this will save Australian rail industry millions of dollars annually by reducing the demand for freshly quarried rock for ballast that is very expensive and not carbon friendly.” 

The project also provides a novel way to address tyre waste – with over 50 million end-of-life tyres generated in Australia each year.  

“We have proven we can turn a significant waste stream into a high-value asset that makes our critical infrastructure more resilient and advances the circular economy,” said Professor Cholachat Rujikiatkamjorn from the UTS Transport Research Centre. 

The research team will now expand its work through a $740,000 Australian Research Council Linkage Project grant, testing the technology in more challenging locations – such as at bridge approaches and junctions, where abrupt changes in track stiffness create high-impact zones prone to rapid degradation. 



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Union Pacific exploring Norfolk Southern rail takeover, reports say

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A Norfolk Southern train in North Carolina in 2022. Union Pacific is reportedly looking at buying its competitor, a deal that would shake up the U.S. freight rail landscape if it materializes.Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Union Pacific, the largest U.S. freight railroad operator, is exploring a possible acquisition of Norfolk Southern to create a US$200-billion coast-to-coast rail network, a person familiar with the matter said.

Talks are in early stages, the person said, with no guarantee talks will progress or that any deal would pass what would be expected to be a lengthy, detailed regulatory review. The two companies declined to comment.

Any deal to unite two of the six largest freight rail operators in North America is likely to draw intense regulatory scrutiny. Major shippers in the steel, chemical and grain industries are expected to lobby against any further concentration in an industry that has consolidated from over 100 Class I railroads in the 1950s to just six today.

Union Pacific UNP-N shares fell 2.7 per cent in Friday afternoon trading, while Norfolk Southern NSC-N rose 1.52 per cent.

A combination would mark a shift in the U.S. freight rail landscape, creating a single-line network stretching from coast to coast, changing the current divide between western and eastern regional operators.

Norfolk is recovering from a tumultuous past couple of years that included the firing of its previous CEO amid ethics investigations, a boardroom battle with activist Ancora, and a train derailment that cost the company about $1.4-billion.

A merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern would create the first modern West-to-East single-line freight railroad in the U.S.

Earlier this year, Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena said a transcontinental merger would be good for customers, eliminating the need for interchanges between carriers in Chicago – a longstanding bottleneck – and reducing costly delays for shippers.

But critics warn that such consolidation could reduce competition, a possible concern for regulators. With fewer major players in the market, shippers may face higher costs and diminished service options.

“We suspect certain shipper groups could get vocal on the perceived lost competition a merger would bring,” Barclays analyst Brandon R. Oglenski said.

Discussions between the two operators, first disclosed by Semafor, spurred speculation that competitors would also consider concentration.

“History teaches that mergers and acquisitions within the railroad industry will inspire and motivate additional M&A,” said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.

That happened earlier this decade when Canadian Pacific offered to acquire Kansas City Southern, which prompted CP’s main competitor – Canadian National – to submit their own offer to acquire Kansas City Southern.

Ultimately the Canadian National offer was not allowed to proceed, and Canadian Pacific did acquire Kansas City Southern in 2023 – creating the first railroad to link Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.

In 2024, Union Pacific led the industry with $24.3-billion in revenue, followed by BNSF (privately held, owned by Berkshire Hathaway), CSX CSX-Q, Canadian National CNR-T, Norfolk and Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP-T.

“The energy and momentum toward the remaining two U.S. based Class I railroads – BNSF and CSX – pursuing a merger would be considerable,” Steenhoek said.

A regulatory decision could take 16 to 22 months, with merging carriers required to notify the Surface Transportation Board three to six months before filing an application, followed by a year-long evidentiary review and a final ruling within 90 days, Oglenski said.

A potential Union Pacific acquisition of Norfolk Southern could have material synergy, he said.

“Any deal would face serious review from regulators,” said Emily Nasseff Mitsch, equity analyst at CFRA.



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