The Trump Administration has stunned the aviation industry with a new set of flight restrictions on Mexican airlines to come into effect on July 19, 2025. The new rules, which could have a significant impact on the joint venture between Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico, are a clear response to Mexico’s limits on the number of flights and the amount of cargo that can be brought into Mexico City. The move is the latest round in the long-running aviation dispute between the two countries.

New Flying Permits For Mexican Airlines

Under the new rules, all Mexican passenger and cargo charter operators will have to submit their flight schedules to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) for official roll-back before the proposed flights can leave for U.S. points. This could throw an enormous wrench into the dynamics of cross-border flights between the U.S. and Mexico, especially flights into Mexico City, an important global hub.

U.S. Belligerency Toward Mexico’s Behavior

After it was announced, these limitations were criticized by U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy. This is because the decisions that the government of Mexico took in recent years in regards to the airport in Mexico City are still pending and He added that the new regulations were adopted due to unresolved problems about decisions made by the Mexican government regarding Mexico City’s airport in the past few years. He singled out actions taken in 2022 and 2023 which Washington says violated the bilateral aviation agreement between the two countries. Duffy said, “Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg willfully allowed Mexico to violate our bilateral aviation agreement. That ends today. Let these actions be a lesson to any nation that reaps the benefits of the United States while having mistreated our loyal dealers, and pretends to act against our carriers.“Vuamp – trom pler Queens!

The Fate of Delta-Aeromexico Partnership

At the center of the dispute is the two airlines’ partnership. The two airlines have partnered since 2017 as part of a joint venture that includes a number of routes between the U.S. and Mexico. In 2016, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation tried to end the agreement, saying it is anticompetitive and breaks international aviation treaties. Nonetheless, Delta and Aeromexico have continued to stand by their partnership, saying the actions of the Mexican government should not be used against them. They cautioned that the partnership’s dissolution could imperil 20 routes and more than $800 million in economic activity tied to tourism and jobs.

Potential for Impact on the Airline Industry

But the U.S. government’s new restrictions have thrust the future of this partnership into question. The most likely loser is the Delta/Aeromexico joint venture, which may screw up their deal when Mexican airlines have to file schedules that could be rejected. That could have ramifications not only for the airlines but also for the broader economy in each country. According to Fernando Gomez, an independent airline industry analyst, “the U.S. looks to gain a solid negotiation position before the six-year review of the USMCA,” which is in 2026.

Mexican Industry Voices Concern

The potential ramifications of the new protocols are also reverberating in the aviation and business communities in both countries. The Mexican Air Transportation Chamber, Canaero, also issued a statement stating that it was concerned with the negative effects that these would have on connectivity, trade, and the general competitiveness of the air sector that exists between the US and Mexico. The group also is worried that limiting flights will hamper airlines’ ability to effectively serve the traveling public, and could impede the exchange of goods and services between the two nations.

The Future Is Uncertain: Future Legal Challenges

The story is still developing, and it’s anybody’s guess how it will affect the wider economic relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. These new demands will not affect the Delta-Aeromexico relationship in the short-term, but the U.S. government said it could move forward with withdrawing its approval of the partnership in October. This deadline is likely to send the involved airlines scurrying to court, and they have already stated that they will resist any changes in their present activities.

Mexican Government’s Response

“I am responding because I want you to breathe a sigh of relief,” … “President Trump told us for months we’re building a wall along the border. No problem for us because Mexico will pay.” Note: Despite the numerous threats and false promises about constructing a “big beautiful wall,” he never said in either the 2016 or 2020 campaigning trail that he would be the one to pay for the prison wall. …She failed to acknowledge the agreement and focused only on the “mutual respect” that the U.S. has shown Mexico. So you won’t surprise out of bed and stub your toe. Sheinbaum said that “we have not received official information but can guarantee that we will not change a comma to what we have already agreed upon.” However, it might be hard for Mexico to change Vermont to New Jersey or Miami if the U.S. decides to do the same with the Russian and Chinese borders to change synonyms. She has made clear that she sees no good reason for these penalties and has assured that the distribution of flights at the Mexico City airport, as currently assigned, will go forward. Sheinbaum’s statement suggests possible tension between the two governments as the feud over aviation policy intensifies.

The Quiet of the Airlines: Wait and See

Aeromexico and Delta Airlines have not commented on the issue, and both airlines chose not to issue any statements regarding the new restrictions. Rest of World / Politics & policy What Didi and Yandex’s tough year says about doing business in the U.S. As rival companies cope with the increasing pressures, all eyes are on how they’ll respond — and if they’ll spend 2022 defying the Trump administration. For now, the future of Delta-Aeromexico and wider U.S.-Mexico aviation relations is up in the air.

Broader Implications for US-Mexico Relations

The new flight restrictions add another wrinkle to an already tense trade relationship as both countries get ready for the 2026 USMCA review. With such high economic stakes, we can therefore expect both countries to continue fighting hard to work out some deal, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this keep playing out in the months ahead, leaving the aviation industry on both sides and the many stakeholders in it feeling further on edge. This continuing spat will be one to follow closely and could shape the future of U.S.-Mexico relations for years to come.

(Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Mexican Air Transportation Chamber, Aeromexico, Delta Air Lines, President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum)