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Thailand Braces for New Shifting Trends in Chinese Tourism Amid Economic Transition of China

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Tuesday, August 5, 2025

China’s economic shift is impacting world travel trends, and Thailand—deeply dependent on Chinese visitors—is paying close attention. Visiting official statistics from China would have one believe that all is stable, yet the story told by consumer attitudes, employment insecurity, and an ailing housing market is quite another.

For nations such as Thailand, where tourism plays a major role in GDP, adjustments in Chinese outbound travel have a direct impact on economic recovery. As China enters a new growth pattern, Thailand has to adjust its tourism projections and strategies accordingly.

Current Snapshot: Economic Growth and Tourism Expectations

In 2025, China’s GDP is projected to grow by 5.2%, placing it ahead of many developed economies but trailing fast-growing markets like India. Thailand’s projected growth sits at 3.1%, with tourism acting as a primary driver. Countries such as Indonesia, benefiting from favourable demographics and infrastructure development, are also emerging as strong regional performers.

Short-Term Outlook (2025–2026): A Cautious Return of Chinese Tourists

Despite easing travel restrictions and group tour resumptions, Chinese outbound tourism is recovering slowly. Underlying economic challenges continue to limit international travel enthusiasm.

Key Factors Affecting Chinese Travel to Thailand:

  • Reduced consumer spending due to a prolonged property slump and youth unemployment
  • Increased budget sensitivity, with tourists opting for shorter or more cost-effective trips
  • Thailand’s 2025 forecast anticipates 6.5–7 million Chinese visitors, a significant drop from the 11 million recorded in 2019
  • A full recovery of Chinese arrivals is unlikely before 2027 or later, unless broader economic conditions improve rapidly

Mid-Term Outlook (2026–2027): A Gradual Rebound in Sight

If consumer confidence in China begins to strengthen by 2026, Thailand could benefit from a gradual rise in inbound Chinese visitors. Travel demand is expected to pick up across specific segments.

Projected Trends:

  • Annual growth in arrivals may reach 10–15%, led by free independent travellers (FITs), family vacationers, and millennials
  • Visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, implemented in 2024, will continue to boost appeal
  • Popular destinations like Phuket, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, and Hua Hin remain attractive due to their affordability and family-friendly atmosphere
  • Group travel may remain subdued unless airline capacity returns to pre-pandemic levels

Long-Term Outlook (2027–2028): Stabilization with Changing Travel Behavior

Assuming economic conditions in China stabilize, Thailand could return to welcoming 10–11 million Chinese tourists annually by 2028. However, the nature of those tourists will change.

Notable Shifts in Traveller Preferences:

  • Fewer low-budget tour groups, with growth driven by independent, tech-savvy travellers
  • Rising interest in sustainable tourism, wellness retreats, and immersive cultural experiences
  • Preferences for destinations that offer “Instagrammable” scenery, personalized itineraries, and digital convenience
  • While average spending may remain lower than 2019 levels, premium travel services—especially those offering curated, luxury experiences—are expected to see increased demand

What Thailand Must Do to Stay Competitive

To maintain its position as a preferred destination for Chinese tourists, Thailand must adapt to evolving traveller needs and improve digital infrastructure.

Strategic Priorities for Thailand:

  • Expand Chinese-language support services across tourism hubs
  • Ensure compatibility with digital payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay
  • Invest in content marketing tailored to Chinese social media trends
  • Promote eco-tourism, wellness tourism, and heritage experiences to cater to more discerning travellers

Tourism Growth of Thailand by Chinese Travelers

China’s economic transformation is altering its people’s global travel patterns, and Thailand’s tourism industry needs to adapt accordingly. Although full recovery in Chinese arrivals will take a few years, there are opportunities galore—particularly for those who provide distinctive, technology-driven, and sustainable travel experiences.

While Thailand continues to receive tourists from China, India, and Russia, its attention has to be drawn away from volume-based approaches to value-based models that cater to high-end, independent travelers. This way, Thailand will not only regain its tourism momentum but also become a beacon for the next generation of Asian travel.



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This summer’s trend: Clients who book last minute: Travel Weekly

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Travel advisors tend to spend July and August working on winter holiday bookings. But this year, they may be spending July and August working on July and August bookings.

In short: Close-in booking is shaping up to be the travel trend of the summer.

Royal Caribbean Group last week credited an “acceleration” in close-in bookings for pushing second-quarter earnings above expectations. The biggest travel agency on the Travel Weekly Power List, Booking Holdings, said that booking windows shortened during its second quarter, while Caesars Entertainment CEO Thomas Reeg said during the company’s July 29 earnings call that booking windows in Las Vegas were “about as short as I’ve seen.”

Classic Vacations CEO Melissa Krueger said on The Folo by Travel Weekly podcast on July 13 that the packager has observed “a major uptick” in close-in bookings this summer. 

“What used to be an average 90- to 100-day booking window has shifted to travelers confirming plans maybe just 20 to 45 days out,” she said. 

That jibes with preliminary data from a Travel Weekly reader survey fielded in late July, which found that 36% of respondents were seeing a higher-than-usual rate of last-minute bookings. According to the survey of about 200 travel advisors, 27.6% of respondents said one to three months was the most common booking window this summer. Only 9.5% said that booking window was the most common at this time last year. 

Melissa Krueger

Krueger said on the podcast that in late June, about 40% of “options” — travelers who had signaled their intent to travel — were still looking to book for July, August and early September.

“That’s pretty significant, especially when you start thinking about Europe,” she said. “Europe used to be a trip you used to plan the minute you could start booking air.” She added, “Business isn’t slowing. We’re just seeing more bookings for summer travel even now.”

American Marketing Group (AMG) companies Travelsavers and the Network of Entrepreneurs Selling Travel started seeing the trend take hold in April. In a survey of affiliate agencies fielded in April and May, AMG found that 20% of respondents were seeing last-minute bookings at a rate higher than usual.

Krueger said that a mix of economic uncertainty and geopolitical concerns appeared to be driving the trend. 

“Being in the global travel hospitality business, we rely on certainty in these areas, and as human beings we desire certainty,” she said. “And so people are holding space, they’re watching, they’re engaged in their travel plans, but … they’re making that final decision when they feel confident. And when they do, they want to move quickly.”

Royal Caribbean Group CEO Jason Liberty mostly attributed the close-in booking trend to the habits of younger consumers. During its second-quarter earnings call on July 29, Liberty said that 70% of millennials and younger are more likely to book closer to the date of the cruise, “reflecting a desire for spontaneity and flexibility.”

This was echoed by Tracey Ryniec, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, who said that with those generations representing half of Royal Caribbean customers, it is prompting a shift in consumer behavior. 

“Millennials are more spontaneous and last-minute,” she said. 

Royal Caribbean executives also said its product mix, specifically an increase in shorter sailings, had prompted more close-in demand. 

“We call it the big weekend,” said Michael Bayley, president of Royal Caribbean International. “People just decide later on to jump on board and have a great time.”

But UBS analyst Robin Farley speculated that the close-in acceleration at Royal Caribbean was related to overall economic conditions and “could just suggest that since April, consumers waited till closer in to departure to book, given the volatility in the macro outlook.”

Booking Holdings CFO Ewout Steenbergen also attributed the close-in bookings to consumer sentiment. 

“This may suggest that U.S. consumers are being more careful with spending in the current economic environment,” he said.

Despite the uncertainty, Krueger said that long-term trends are promising: The same people booking close-in trips this summer are also making plans for 2026 in advance.

“That tells me the consumer says, ‘We know everything is going to be fine,'” she said.

Teri West and Christina Jelski contributed to this report.



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Alain St.Ange responds to President Ramkalawan statements about Seychelles Airport

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Seychelles

On 31st July 2025, President Wavel Ramkalawan made an unscheduled visit to Seychelles International Airport. According to news reports and the official State House website, the visit was framed as a “technical site inspection” to discuss the Airport Redevelopment Project. During a hastily arranged press conference, the President denied claims that his administration plans to sell the airport and suggested that during my tenure as Minister, foreign media had interpreted my involvement as indicative of a possible sale.

I wish to address this directly.

During discussions with ADAC on possible cooperation for airport redevelopment, I was serving as Minister for Tourism and Culture. I was appointed to represent tourism interests, as the airport is the main gateway to Seychelles. My responsibility was to defend and strengthen tourism – our nation’s economic backbone. I consistently emphasised that a successful airport project depends not only on infrastructure, but also on the treatment and remuneration of its staff, whose dedication makes the facility function.

At no point was I involved in any negotiation to sell Seychelles International Airport. The President’s comments suggest otherwise. I must ask: if I were not a presidential candidate today, would this statement even have been made? What was his motive? What point was he attempting to make?

Watching the press conference, it became clear that the visit served as a staged rebuttal to growing public concern—raised by the opposition—over the airport’s future. The aim was not transparency, but to create an opportunity for the President to publicly refute these concerns and project a sense of strategic control. I leave it to the Seychellois people to judge the timing and intention.

Since the President chose to mention me by name, I will respond further.

According to various news reports, press releases, and Airport Authority staff, this administration “reinitiated” talks with ADAC in 2021. Initial discussions with the Ministry of Transport and the Seychelles Civil Aviation Authority led to a revised Airport Master Plan. That process moved to project modelling and is now reportedly in the financial structuring phase. From the President’s own words, they are now negotiating funding and cooperation terms.

Yet the public has received no explanation of why ADAC was chosen over other potential partners. No other entities were named. No rationale provided. The people of Seychelles deserve transparency on such matters.

While the President insists there is no sale, he seems to have missed the real concern: “the substance of the deal with ADAC and what it will mean in practice.”

  • What level of funding is involved?
  • What conditions and guarantees are being offered?
  • What collateral is on the table?
  • What commercial or operational control will ADAC have?
  • How long will the people of Seychelles be financially tied to this agreement?

The President mentioned a figure of SCR 100 million. I invite the public to reflect: will the final figure – if ever disclosed – confirm or contradict that statement? It is my firm belief that no such figures will be released before the September 2025 elections. Based on recent patterns, we may see a symbolic foundation stone laid instead.

Foreign direct investments like this often include clauses ensuring investor returns – typically by embedding commercial and operational control. These often include scrutiny of staffing levels and performance, and efforts to “streamline” operations. President Ramkalawan stated no jobs will be lost. But the people of Seychelles were told the same thing when Etihad partnered with Air Seychelles. Do those who lost their jobs then believe that promise now? I have my doubts.

The President repeatedly mentioned “high-level technicians” and surrounded himself with staff during the press conference. Yet none were given a platform to speak. Why?

This is now the third visit the President has made to the airport since taking office. The first, in March 2025, was presented as a security inspection – where the President miraculously identified and resolved decades-old security concerns. The second, on 25th July 2025, was to address long-standing issues faced by taxi operators—issues his own administration created by arbitrarily removing parking access. Either these matters were beyond the authority of the Airport CEO, Board, and Transport Ministry – or they were bypassed altogether. I leave that to the public to decide.

What remains clear is this: the truth is known by the staff at the Airport Authority.

The people of Seychelles are not naïve. They will not be swayed by last-minute theatrics, smear campaigns, or political diversions.

In 2020, voters demanded change – perhaps more than they believed in the man who promised it. Ramkalawan was seen as the only one who could end political stagnation. He has now had five years to prove who he is, what he stands for, how he leads, and whether he delivers. As we approach the 2025 elections, the concerns of the people are different. The questions are harder. The expectations are higher.

Let’s ensure we ask the right ones.

The article Alain St.Ange responds to President Ramkalawan statements about Seychelles Airport first appeared in TravelDailyNews International.



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