And the world’s business travel sector is left to wrestle with uncertainty, as the U.S. government’s actions proceed to torpedo the status quo. A new poll from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) reveals the strain of higher travel costs, staffing and security concerns. Companies are cutting the purse strings on spending and scaling back international trips and turning events into virtual gatherings, particularly because of U.S. policies such as trade tariffs and travel restrictions. As international suppliers start to prepare for losses, it’s a make-or-break time for the business travel sector to reconsider and adapt.

Supplier Revenue Concerns Deepen

As the business of business travel changes, concerns over revenue for suppliers have also deepened. Nearly half of suppliers around the world (48%) anticipate falling business travel revenue, GBT has been informed, and some are forecasting an average decrease of 17 per cent. That’s a significant increase from the 37% of suppliers in April. Lodging providers are among the hardest hit, with 58% expecting a drop in revenue.

The growing pessimism underscores growing stress across suppliers, as companies cancel travel, adjust strategies and respond to shifting demand. The growing fits of anxiety portend a rocky road ahead for the travel industry as it faces recovery and, in many cases, reinvention.

The Future of Business Travel: Domestic vs. International

In the longer term, the outlook for business travel remains subdued. The share of corporate travel buyers who expect reduction in the number of business trips for 2025 remains constant at more than one-third (34%, versus 29% in April). “Strikingly, international business travel is now seen to be more exposed than that associated with domestic” or intra-regional travel, with 49 percent of respondents forecasting a fall in international trips vs 23 percent for domestic or intra-regional.

Those numbers would seem to suggest the global business travel market has more-severe headwinds for serving international connections, apparently as a result of policy changes as well as the ongoing global operations impact from the pandemic.

The Impact on Expenditure: A Looming Danger

For spending, the outlook remains worrying. Roughly 31% of travel buyers anticipate that their company’s business travel budget will be reduced by 17% on average. It’s a small shift from what was 20% in April, but represents an ongoing reluctance to spend on travel, particularly in times of uncertainty.

It’s hard for companies to justify pricey business travels nowadays, not just because of the added strain on travel budgets but also various worries about soaring travel expenses and more intricate administration that companies would prefer to avoid.

Growing Concerns Over Safety and Willingness to Travel

Alarmingly, alongside budget-related worries there is a growing concern for safety. Concerns about safety and duty of care were identified as increased for 46 percent of respondents, while 31% reported the possibility of border detentions. These concerns are considerably higher than in April and indicate a growing nervousness about international travel as policies change and global tensions rise.

Further, now employees are increasingly unwilling to travel to the U.S. Nearly 41% stated that those outside the U. S. employees are far less likely to say they’re willing to travel to the U. S. than they were in April, with just 37% now willing, compared with 54% at that time. A direct consequence of rising uncertainty and security concerns, this is another of the complicators businesses need to keep in mind when planning travel.

Changes in Meeting and Event Planning

The consequences of U.S. policy also are being felt in the meetings and event industry. More firms are canceling, moving or taking meetings online. Since April, the share of worldwide buyers canceling or moving U.S.-bound meetings or events has spiked. The percentage of meetings that have been canceled reached 18%, up from 13%, while 13% of buyers have moved meetings outside the U.S., up from 8%. And 24% of respondents have moved meetings to virtual, up from 19%.

That switch underscores the increasing dependence on virtual and hybrid events and the ability for companies to continue as usual without contending with the complications of international travel and the potential risks of U.S. policy.

New Opportunities Outside the U.S.

As the U.S. market drives more complex demands from companies, businesses are looking further afield for new opportunities. A third of non-U. S.-based industry professionals (35%) said their companies are considering traveling for business to establish new trade partners or vendors outside the U.S. Europe and the Asia-Pacific region seem to be especially popular, with 70% of respondents targeting Europe and 53% the APAC region.

That suggests the future of global business travel may be more dispersed, with companies diversifying their trade connections and reaching more of the world’s emerging economies.

Personal Impact of New Policies

And the effects of United States policy are getting more personal for many in the industry. Approximately 18 percent of global travel buyers said employees have not traveled to the U.S. for business out of concerns about U.S. government activity. Over a third (35%) now know someone whose travel plans have been impacted by these adjustments, compared with 23% in April. This is a stark illustration of the wide-reaching impact of policy changes — affecting not just companies but individuals who are directly affected by travel choices.

Conclusion: The Future of Business Travel

As business travel finds its way through the waters of U.S. government actions and global uncertainty, companies will have to evolve. Growing worries around safety, rising costs and less willingness to travel are changing the calculus. If domestic and regional travel stand a better chance, international travel is more exposed.

As the industry adapts, more virtual meetings and relocations to new trade hubs outside the United States may be on the horizon, so companies and their travel managers will need to be increasingly nimble and strategic in their handling of travel, with an eye toward both cost savings and safety. Over the next few months, we’ll see how well the industry can adjust to these changes and continue to deliver important global relationships.