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Why Do Airlines Overbook Flights & What You Can Do About It – Travel Radar

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You book a flight, pick your seat, and even check in early. You did everything right so the flight should go smoothly. And then you come to the gate and there’s an announcement that the flight is overbooked and they’re looking for volunteers to give up their seats. What a nightmare. But how can this kind of mistake even happen? Or better yet, why do airlines overbook flights?

Believe it or not, overbooking isn’t a mistake but a deliberate strategy airlines use every single day. It sounds outrageous, doesn’t it? How does it make sense to sell more tickets than there are seats on the plane? Isn’t that bad business? Heck, isn’t it illegal?

Actually, no. Airlines have been doing this for decades and, in most countries, it’s perfectly legal. 

There’s a method to the madness. This is an industry where margins are razor-thin and no-shows cost millions each year. So, overbooking became one of the ways carriers stay profitable. Of course, as a passenger, you end up feeling like you’re paying the price for their calculations.

Let’s dig deeper into this.

©Marko Vučilovski

The Business Logic Behind Overbooking

Overbooking sounds like a reckless move, but there’s a good (strategic) reason behind it. Every day, a certain number of passengers don’t show up for their flights. These no-shows mean empty seats and empty seats mean lost money and, as previously mentioned, profit margins are already very slim. 

Airlines rely on something called a load factor to measure how full their flights are and, the higher the factor, the more profitable the flight. If a plane has 180 seats but 10 passengers don’t show, that’s 10 seats generating zero revenue while the airline still has to pay for fuel, gas, and airport fees. 

So, to avoid this, they oversell tickets based on years of data showing how many people usually don’t turn up and, for the most part, it works perfectly. But then there are those times where more people show up than expected and that’s when overbooking goes from a smart strategy to a big problem. 

Overbooking in Practice

This is how overbooking plays out behind the scenes. 

  1. Predicting No-Shows

When it comes to overbooking, there’s no guessing. Airlines study years of booking trends to see how many passengers usually miss their flight. If a route has a 5% no-show rate, they’ll oversell by a similar margin. 

Today, AI and machine learning make these predictions even more accurate because they factor in things like seasonality, traveler habits, and even weather. 

  1. Handling an Overbooked Flight

When too many passengers arrive for a flight, airlines first ask for volunteers who are willing to take a later departure and it usually solves the problem. If that doesn’t help, they move to involuntary denied boarding, which means they choose passengers to stay behind. 

The way they choose is usually based on check-in time, ticket type, or loyalty status. It’s a last resort and it’s far from ideal, but it happens. 

  1. Compensation for Passengers

Getting bumped is not the end of the world. In Europe, UE261 regulations entitle travelers to cash payouts based on flight distance and delay time. In the U.S., DOT rules require airlines to pay up to 4 times your ticket price for involuntary denied boarding. Voluntary compensation, on the other hand, is whatever deal the airline offers. 

Rules vary worldwide, so it’s best to be familiar with them before flying.

Flight Overbooking Step-by-Step

  1. Predict No-Shows
  2. Oversell Tickets
  3. Track/Monitor Check-Ins
  4. Look For Volunteers
  5. Force Deny Onboarding (if needed)
  6. Compensate Bumped Passengers
  7. Profit!

How Overbooking Affects Travelers

Some people go into full-on panic when they get bumped, others are just mildly frustrated. This is not a pleasant experience so really, you can’t judge anyone’s reaction to it. Logistically, it means you now have to scramble for alternate flights, rearrange your hotel stay, maybe even lose precious vacation time. 

The airline will try to make it easier on you and they’ll usually offer compensation like cash, travel vouchers, hotel accommodations, possibly even seat upgrades on later flights. These perks are helpful, sure, but they don’t really make up for the disruption. The best way to deal with a situation like this is to avoid it altogether. 

You can never be 100% sure you’ll be able to do that, but there are a few things you can do. 

©Marko Vučilovski

First, try to check in as early as possible. You should also choose direct flights, not travel during peak times (this one’s tricky, but keep it in mind), and join airline loyalty programs. This’ll lower your chances of being bumped, which is especially important if you’re flying to popular vacation spots like Orlando, Cancun, or even a beach town like Panama City Beach. 

Another thing you can do to make your stay more flexible is avoid hotels. Since we’ve already mentioned it, let’s take Panama City Beach as an example – you can book a vacation rental near Pier Park in Panama City Beach instead of a hotel in the same city, because then you don’t have to deal with strict check-in times and lost hotel nights.

Conclusion

For an airline, an empty seat is the ultimate enemy, so they do what they can to prevent them. Unfortunately for passengers, the way they fight empty seats is they overbook their flights. Sometimes that works like a charm, other times you get drama at the gate. 

But even if your flight ends up being overbooked, it’s okay. You might still get on and, even if you don’t, try to make the most out of the mini-adventure (and the compensation) you’re forced to have.



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Now, Avelo Airlines Ends West Coast Flights Amid Financial Struggles: Here is What You Need to Know About it

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Friday, July 18, 2025

Low-cost carrier Avelo Airlines is discontinuing all of its West Coast service by Dec. 2, 2025. The change is a major strategic turnaround for the carrier, which began operating its first flights from Burbank Airport earlier this year. The company says the move is due in large part to fierce competition, while an unsustainable cost grind has rendered its West Coast network unsustainable.

For Avelo, it’s not just a route shift. It represents a deliberate turn in strategy — from growth to profitable sustainability. The airline will now concentrate its efforts on its six East Coast bases, where it believes it has a better shot of earning sustainable returns.

Burbank From Launchpad to Exit

The first base for Avelo has been the one at Burbank Airport in the Los Angeles metro region, and one that is perhaps fittingly emblematic of its lift off. Launched in April 2021, the airline promised a game-changing disruption of the short-haul air market. It sought to provide significantly discounted fares and focus on underserved routes that the old-line airlines had for years ignored.

Avelo achieved a monthly high of 190 departures by July 2024, serving as many as 14 destinations from Burbank. These were a mix of regional and mid-distance flights marketed at those on a budget looking for alternatives to the major airline hubs.

But as of mid-2025, the power had dwindled to just eight active destinations, as the empire quietly withdrew from an increasing set of problems. The others as of July 2025 were:

  • Eureka and Santa Rosa, California
  • Eugene, Medford, Bend, Salem, Oregon
  • Kalispell, Montana
  • Pasco, Washington

Avelo also kept a Las Vegas to Santa Rosa route, using planes that were based in Burbank.

“All That Investment, and It Didn’t Pay Off”

The airline said it had spent a lot of time, effort and money on developing its west coast network. But as the company now concedes, the financial results were less than exciting.

The operational environment on the West Coast had become “onerous” and did not produce the financial return necessary to keep the airline profitable, Avelo said in a recent statement. Executives told investors they had overestimated demand in the market and underestimated operating costs including airport fees, salaries and competitive forces.

This, the airline stressed, comes as part of an “ongoing objective” to maximise performance and move the business into “sustainable profitability”.

Closure Timeline for Burbank Operations

Here’s how the airline has outlined the gradual shutdown of its Burbank base, which started with schedule cutbacks and will conclude with the base shutting down completely:

  • Aug. 12, 2025: The two, Burbank-based fleet will be shrunk to one.
  • Late August 2025: Four major routes — to Las Vegas, Salem, Santa Rosa and Kalispell — will be eliminated.
  • December 1 to 2, 2025: All remaining flights will be removed and the base will be closed in its entirety.

East Coast Takes Center Stage

Now with the West Coast draw down, Avelo Airlines will focus in full on the operations that originate from its six East Coast bases. These hubs are economically more compelling, with average returns that are higher, lower competition and higher passenger demand, the airline has claimed.

Avelo’s largest and most active base is currently located in New Haven, Connecticut. The airline also maintains operations in the following strategic secondary markets:

  • Concord-Padgett Regional Airport, near Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina
  • Lakeland, Florida
  • Wilmington, Delaware
  • Wilmington, North Carolina

This geographic focus will enable Avelo to simplify the operation, minimize fixed costs and optimize aircraft utilization throughout its network. In particular, the airline is interested in underserved East Coast airports with no low-cost competition that it can develop long term.

Effect on travelers and Domestic Markets

Burbank marks the first departure for Avelo here, which is a loss for West Coast travelers who no longer have direct access to Avelo’s ultra-low-cost fares. For others, particularly in smaller or less-connected cities, it could mean fewer travel options — or more expensive tickets — as competition dries up.

Customers who have booked flights beyond the dates of closure will be contacted directly by the airline. They will receive refunds or be given rebooking options as per Avelo’s customer policies.

The Burbank closure also has implications for the lives of Avelo workers, contractors and the ecosystem of businesses left scrambling in Avelo’s absence, though specifics on workforce impact were not provided at press time.

Industry View: The Failure of Avelo’s West Coast Plan

Avelo’s withdrawal from the West Coast is shaping up as a cautionary tale, analysts say. The carrier walked into a market dominated by heavyweights such as Southwest, Delta and United — all of which have built up brand recognition, loyalty programs and extensive operational muscles.

Margins were also squeezed by increasing operational costs such as fuel prices, and airport charges, as well as shortages of staff. The COVID-19 crisis has further changed the way people travel, reducing predictability in short-haul regional flying.

Unlike its East Coast destinations, many of Avelo’s West Coast destinations never made it to the essential load factor required to cover its costs. There were lower barriers to profitability on the East Coast, with its less congested secondary airports, while the Midwest, where the airline had fewer flights, and the West Coast had higher ones, he said.

What’s Next for Avelo Airlines?

Industry observers say that Avelo’s new focus on the East Coast could provide more of a long-term path. Markets such as New Haven are already proving to have sufficient demand from passengers, and other markets, whose airports are under-served, could also be potential strongholds.

With its pared-back footprint, Avelo aims to take advantage of underserved markets, lower fixed expenses and less complex route development. Analysts say it could help transition the new startup to a higher profit per aircraft and a more efficient business model.

The Next Stage: Growth to Sustainability

Avelo’s departure from Burbank is not just a withdrawal — it is a shift in strategy. The airline now seems to be moving away from a flier-are-better mentality and concentrating instead on operational robustness and financial stability.

This change says a lot about the big picture in the ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) space. Citing economic headwinds and changing consumer desires, ULCCs increasingly looking to establish a permanent home in a market rather than blanketing the map.

That translates into West Coast passengers having fewer choices in low-fare travel. But for East Coast travelers, Avelo’s reboot may translate into superior service, more predictable scheduling and a more robust route map designed to contend with the future.

Source Credit: www.travelweekly.com



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India and Kuwait Strengthen Aviation Ties with Major Air Travel Capacity Boost, Opening New Opportunities for Travelers Between the Two Nations

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Friday, July 18, 2025

In an unprecedented decision reflecting the depth of relations and cooperation between the two friendly countries in the field of air transport, Kuwait and India will lift the number of flights of the two countries by 50% from 12,000 to 18,000 each side per week. The first in close to 20 years, the expansion has been made in response to a greater need for people to travel between the two countries – including a significant expatriate Indian community in Kuwait. Under the contract savings will be passed on to passengers through competitive travel pricing, the alleviation of price increases and greater accessibility, resulting in a more flexible and efficient passenger experience. With the substantial increase in air capacity, the two countries will have enhanced connectivity and increased flexibility of operations for airlines.

India and Kuwait have formalized a historic agreement to expand their air travel capacity, representing a major advancement in their aviation partnership. This agreement will enhance the bilateral air capacity by fifty percent, increasing the weekly seat allocation from 12,000 to 18,000 seats for each country.The updated arrangement, signed after nearly two decades of unchanged terms, was formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in New Delhi.

The agreement was the result of negotiations between Samir Kumar Sinha, Secretary of India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation, and Saif Mohammed Al Suwaidi, Director General of Civil Aviation from the UAE. This follows discussions held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to Kuwait in December. The revised air service agreement is the first capacity expansion since 2006, when the quota was increased from 8,320 to the current 12,000 seats per week.

The expansion of air capacity comes at a crucial time, with increasing demand for travel between India and Kuwait, particularly for the sizable Indian expatriate community living in Kuwait. Many of these individuals come from southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat. By increasing the seat allocation, the new agreement aims to reduce fare pressures and provide more affordable and accessible travel options for passengers.

The newly revised air service agreement also promises to improve connectivity by offering additional flights and seat availability.At present, approximately 40 flights operate daily between India and Kuwait, with Kuwait Airways taking the lead, offering 54 weekly flights. Following closely behind is IndiGo, which operates 36 weekly flights. Other airlines operating on this route include Jazeera Airways, Akasa Air, and Air India Express, offering passengers a range of options for their travel needs.

A major benefit of the revised agreement is the enhanced access Indian airlines will gain to airport slots in Kuwait.For years, Indian carriers have faced difficulties securing timely slots at Kuwait International Airport, which has limited their ability to efficiently operate on this busy route. The new agreement alleviates this challenge by opening up more slots for Indian airlines, thus enhancing operational flexibility.

This deal represents a significant shift in the aviation landscape between India and the Gulf region. The Gulf states, including Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, are among the largest aviation markets for India. Millions of Indian nationals reside and work in these countries, fueling demand for frequent air travel between the regions. In particular, Indian nationals have long been a vital part of the labor force in Kuwait, with many making regular trips back home to visit family, attend to personal matters, or for medical treatments. The expanded air capacity will provide much-needed support for these travelers, enabling them to travel more conveniently.

Indian carriers have long sought additional seats and airport slots in Gulf countries to better compete with the region’s powerful Middle Eastern airlines, which dominate the airspace with their extensive networks and superior services. The revised agreement with Kuwait aims to create a more level playing field for Indian airlines, enabling them to increase their market share in the region and compete on equal terms with their Middle Eastern counterparts.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation in India has emphasized that this agreement is part of a broader strategy to modernize and revise the country’s bilateral air service agreements. These revisions aim to better align with current market trends and passenger demands, ensuring that Indian airlines can thrive in an increasingly competitive global aviation market. This is consistent with India’s efforts to enhance its international air connectivity and foster greater travel opportunities for both citizens and foreign visitors.

Kuwait’s aviation authorities have also expressed strong support for the deal, seeing it as a strategic move that will not only benefit their nationals traveling to India for business, healthcare, and leisure but also strengthen bilateral relations with India. This move is seen as an important step in fostering closer ties between the two nations, building upon the diplomatic and economic collaboration that has been growing steadily in recent years.

As India and Kuwait embark on this new chapter of their aviation partnership, both countries stand to benefit from enhanced connectivity, greater operational flexibility, and a significant boost in passenger traffic. The deal reflects the evolving nature of global aviation markets and underscores the importance of bilateral cooperation in meeting the needs of modern travelers.

Kuwait and India have raised seat entitlements by 50 percent, which now stands at 18,000 seats for each side per week, to cater to the growing demand and to enhance connectivity which would in turn come to the aid of airlines and our traveling public.

Moving forward, the limitation of the capacity on air travel between India and Kuwait will have widespread implications not just for the airlines but also for many millions that are dependant on these services for personal, professional and medical purposes. With more choice, it means less costs and greater convenience,” This will continue to impact the UAE-Nigeria travel experience, and would set the right tone for a positive precedent in terms of the introduction and implementation of such bilateral agreements with other nations in the Gulf sub-region.



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Aviation roundup: Philippine Airlines, Loong Air and more

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Here’s our weekly roundup of new air routes and codeshare partnerships

Philippine Airlines

Philippine Airlines restarts seasonal Manila-Sapporo route
Philippine Airlines (PAL) will resume seasonal direct flights between Manila and Sapporo from November 24, 2025 to March 27, 2026. The service will reconnect the Philippine capital with northern Japan during the winter travel season.

Flights to Sapporo’s New Chitose Airport will operate every Monday, Wednesday and Friday using the airline’s Airbus A321neo aircraft. PAL intends for this route to operate during every subsequent winter season from November to March.

The 168-seat Airbus A321neo is configured with 12 business class and 156 economy class seats, and is equipped with in-flight entertainment and Wi-Fi.

PAL operates an extensive network between the Philippines and Japan, offering direct services to Osaka Kansai, Nagoya, Fukuoka, Tokyo Haneda and Tokyo Narita, as well as flights from Cebu to Osaka Kansai and Tokyo Narita.

Loong Air

Loong Air adds Xi’an-Kuala Lumpur flights
Loong Air has launched its new Xi’an-Kuala Lumpur service, with the inaugural flight arriving at Kuala Lumpur International Airport Terminal 2 today. The route marks a step forward in strengthening tourism and economic ties between Malaysia and China.

The launch was marked by a ceremony attended by senior officials from Tourism Malaysia, Malaysia Airports Holdings and Loong Air.

The route is operated using a 174-seat Airbus A320 and runs three times weekly on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.

Vietjet

Vietjet to launch daily Danang-Kuala Lumpur service in October
Vietjet will introduce a new direct route between Danang and Kuala Lumpur, beginning October 26, 2025. The daily round-trip service will enhance connectivity between central Vietnam and Malaysia’s capital city.

This marks Vietjet’s third direct route linking Vietnam and Malaysia, and follows the airline’s continued network expansion across South-east Asia. The new service comes after the introduction of 12 international routes in 2025, including new destinations in China, India, Japan and Singapore.

Saudia and Vietnam Airlines

Saudia, Vietnam Airlines sign codeshare agreement
Saudia, the national carrier of Saudi Arabia, has signed a codeshare agreement with Vietnam Airlines to improve connectivity between Vietnam and Saudi Arabia.

The agreement allows passengers to travel on flights connecting Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City with Jeddah and Riyadh, and to book itineraries through either airline, including flights operated by the partner carrier. The arrangement aims to offer greater flexibility and a more streamlined booking experience.

The partnership supports Saudia’s plans to expand its network and enhance passenger services, both on the ground and in the air. It also supports Saudi Arabia’s aim to connect with over 250 destinations and attract 150 million visits by 2030.



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